Arbitrary inference, one of the earliest and broadest cognitive distortions identified in cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), involves drawing conclusions without supporting evidence.
Offers theory, guidance, and prompts for mental health professionals. Downloads are in Fillable PDF format where appropriate.
Includes client-friendly guidance. Downloads are in Fillable PDF format where appropriate.
Arbitrary inference is one of the earliest and broadest cognitive disotortions described in cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Aaron T. Beck defines it as "the process of forming an interpretation of a situation, event, or experience when there is no factual evidence to support the conclusion or when the conclusion is contrary to the evidence". The Arbitrary Inference information handout forms part of the cognitive distortions series, designed to help clients and therapists to work more effectively with common thinking biases.
Understanding cognitive distortions such as arbitrary inference helps clients identify and address cognitive biases that contribute to their difficulties.
Fear-inducing inferences about the future.
Arbitrary inferences about other people's hostile intentions.
Inferences about other people's negative judgments.
Introduce clients to the idea of cognitive distortions or "unhelpful thinking styles."
Explore whether the client relates to making arbitrary inferences.
Assist clients in recognizing when arbitrary inferences occur.
Address arbitrary inferences using techniques such as costs-benefits analysis and cognitive restructuring.
Cognitive distortions are typical ways in which our thoughts can become biased (Beck, 1963). Helping clients identify the presence and nature of cognitive biases often proves beneficial, as they can quickly relate to the idea of “unhelpful thinking styles” and learn to recognize these biases in their own automatic thoughts.
Arbitrary inference, also known as “arbitrary interpretations” or “jumping to conclusions,” is one of the earliest cognitive distortions identified in cognitive therapy. It is linked to various faulty reasoning processes, including biased interpretative reasoning, expectancy judgments (i.e., holding negative expectations about the future), and covariation biases (i.e., overestimating the relationship between fear-related stimuli and negative outcomes; Harvey et al., 2004).
At the core of arbitrary inference is the failure to consider less distressing and more likely explanations for events and experiences. As a result, individuals are particularly prone to making arbitrary inferences in ambiguous situations. While arbitrary inferences are often self-referential (e.g., “I have a cough, so I’m going to develop cancer”) (Beck, 1970), they can also be allocentric. For instance, Eckhardt and Jamison (2002) note that individuals who struggle with anger frequently make arbitrary inferences about others' hostile motivations, a phenomenon they refer to as “hostile attribution bias” (e.g., “He is trying to irritate me by ignoring me”). Consequently, arbitrary inferences often contribute to relationship difficulties (Epstein, 1986; Beck, 1988).
